Economics 100 – Estimating fair market value

Many collections start out of a pure fondness for the item. The collectible transports them to a time or place that excites and interests them. With so many genres of collecting, it can be difficult to find accurate values. Some collector groups are so large that monthly price guides are available or detailed reference books. The internet has also been responsible for shaping the values of antiques and collectibles. Information and product are now accessible to even the most novice and uninformed collectors. Television shows like Antiques Roadshow exist in part because of their ability to provide values to difficult to quantify items.

When M.U.S.C.L.E. was released by Mattel there was a clear pricing structure: ~$1.00 for a 4-pack, ~$2.50 for a 10-pack, and ~$7.00 for a 28-pack. Unfortunately Mattel soon faced financial struggles and this “flanker” brand’s excess inventory needed to be cleared out. This led to the clearance of M.U.S.C.L.E. items from retailers’ shelves. It is not uncommon to see price tags on 4-packs for mere cents or 28-packs for under a few dollars.

The late 1980’s saw M.U.S.C.L.E. enter its darkest days. The only places to purchase M.U.S.C.L.E. figures were resale shops, garage sales, or similar events. Prices were set by the seller with little to no information about their items. The buyer, for better or worse, was at the mercy of the seller.

In the early 1990’s M.U.S.C.L.E. entered a renaissance. Collectors started using the internet to communicate and computers to produce self-published magazines. The hobby was focused to a few dozen collectors, but regional information was finally being shared. The collectors were able to buy and sell from each other at prices agreed upon by their community. Internet auction websites soon sprang up allowing even more collectors’ access to M.U.S.C.L.E – bringing people to the most popular question of modern M.U.S.C.L.E. collecting, “How much are M.U.S.C.L.E.’s worth?”

There is not a simple answer to this question. There are probably three general price categories: (1) the routine auction; (2) the single figure sale; (3) and desirable figures.
 
1. Routine Auction
Internet auction sites often have dozens of M.U.S.C.L.E. auctions available. They range from lots of a few figures to lots including hundreds of figures. If the auction does not contain even moderately desirable figures (the “hand” or the “announcer”), then regardless of the figure count or color the price per figure is often 30 cents. If one or two of these moderately desirable figures are easily recognizable, then the price per figure could be 50 cents. This general rule of thumb is often broken by novice, desperate, and/or impatient collectors. These collectors believe they must win the specific auction. Experience and patience will quickly reveal to the M.U.S.C.L.E. collector these routine auctions will continuously be available. The experienced and patient collector is often able to purchase routine auction lots at under 50 cents per figure. 
 
2. Single Figure Sale
Among modern collectors flesh figures are generally worth $0.50 in mint condition and color figures are worth $1.00 in mint condition. It is not uncommon for these prices to be reduced when the two parties are very familiar with each other and/or many figures are purchased. These prices quickly disappear if the seller knows they have a desirable figure.
 
3. Desirable Figures
Prior to approximately 2000 there had only been two or three truly desirable figures: the “claw”, the mysterious Satan Cross, and the debunked X-2. As M.U.S.C.L.E. collecting evolved and more information was uncovered and exchanged figures were suddenly earning the title of “Rare.”**
 
Suddenly sellers were using all their resources available to trumpet the “rarity” of their desirable figures. Desirable individual figures have sold from $5 up to a few hundred dollars (in only a handful of instances) both in open internet auctions and private sales. The average cost is likely to be approximately $25.
 
The prices of these figures are the perfect model for supply and demand. The demand for these desirable figures often far outweighs the supply allowing the seller a great deal of power. Interestingly in late 2007 there started to be some resistance from buyers to pay these high prices. The precise reason, or multiple reasons, for this resistance is unclear. Speculation ranges from frustration with high costs in a relatively inexpensive hobby to frustration with obstinate sellers.

 

**Footnote – It is the position of the University that there are not rare figures. The University believes that some figures are simply more desirable than other figures. For further discussion on the topic, sign-up for Philosophy 300.

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